Ten reasons we’re wrong about the world, and why things are better than you think.

The crowning jewel of one man’s life work. One of the most important books Bill Gates has ever read. Hans Rosling’s Factfulness is a bit of a masterpiece.

The team behind Factfulness is the same team that’s developed https://www.gapminder.org/

There are ten instincts that guide us astray when it comes to interpreting how the world is really developing.

  1. Gap – look for the majority
    There is much talk of “growing inequality” – but what about the middle? Is there really a gap, or is there a large middle? (hint: there’s almost never a gap)

  2. Negativity – expect bad news
    Bad things happen. The world is not finished with getting better. The media tends to pick out stories that make for good headlines – that means bad news.

  3. Straight line – lines might bend (see Trend Forecasting Is Weird)
    We default to an assumption of a steady rate of change. Depending on what’s causing the change, that might not be the case at all. Most lines bend at some point, often as a logistic curve.

  4. Fear – calculate the risks
    Some things are extremely scary. Terrorism, war, disease. When thinking about them, think about what the risk is.

  5. Size – get things in proportion
    Case in point: nobody really knows how the population of the world is distributed (to the closest billion)
    Developing markets account for a huge part of the worlds population, with billions of people coming online in Asia, and billions more following in Africa soon.

  6. Generalisation – question your categories
    Stereotypes are super helpful for making sense of things. But a regular examination of the categories used for stereotyping is key. If a category doesn’t exist anymore, or new categories have come into existence, we have to update our map (The Map is not The Territory)

  7. Destiny – slow change is still change
    Nothing is destined. We can change it. And when the change is slow, even one person at a time, it’s still change. https://www.charitywater.org/ is an excellent example of something that could seem discouraging, but really isn’t. Paying a monthly fee gets drinking water to X people for at least a year. Small change, but still change. Also, get perspective by talking to grandpa, because it’s almost certain that the world was very different (even where you live) when he was a kid.

  8. Single – get a tool box
    NEVER just examine something from one perspective. “What does it look like for person X”?

  9. Blame – resist pointing your finger
    It’s probably not someone’s fault. It’s probably something we have to work on as a team.

  10. Urgency – take small steps
    It’s not either-or. It’s not radical change or no change. Just change something. Ever so slowly, things get better.

These 10 rules of thumb are what Hans & team put forth as the top 10 things to address. I buy it.